Why Is Pakistan Cracking Down Now?
I’ve been very skeptical of escalation in Afghanistan. Part of my skepticism was based on the belief that our actions would have little impact on Pakistan’s willingness to take action against the Afghan Taliban. But recent arrests certainly cast doubt on that assessment:
Pakistan has arrested nearly half of the Afghanistan Taliban’s leadership in recent days, Pakistani officials told the Monitor Wednesday, dealing what could be a crucial blow to the insurgent movement.
In total, seven of the insurgent group’s 15-member leadership council, thought to be based in Quetta, Pakistan, including the head of military operations, have been apprehended in the past week, according to Pakistani intelligence officials.
We need to be cautious about assuming that everything is linked to American actions. But, on the other hand, proponents of escalation often argued that one of the big benefits of escalation in Afghanistan would be to demonstrate to the Pakistani that we were committed and would not walk away. Proponents predicted that this would encourage the Pakistanis to crack down on safe havens in Pakistan. This is, indeed, what seems to be happening.
I don’t know why the Pakistani are cracking down now. But I didn’t think they would at all, so ya know, I might not be the right person to make the assessment. Anyway, at this point, I am inclined to given credence to the interpretation of escalation proponents that our escalation did indeed alter the calculus in Pakistan.
Now, I am not sure we have much of a stake in Afghanistan, at least not one that justifies a large commitment of ground troops. But these developments certainly make more plausible the goal of defeating the insurgency, which is good news.
