U.S. officials believe that North Korea may test a new nuclear weapon soon, in a report in NBC news on Tuesday.  North Korea has already tested two nuclear weapons in 2006 and 2009 and there is a high probability that North Korea will test again three reasons.

One, the two previous nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009 were preceded by missile tests 3 and 1 month later, respectively.  There is already evidence that North Korea will follow that pattern following its latest test of the Kwangmyŏngsŏng-3 missile.  An Institute for Science and International Security report described increased excavation and construction at the P’unggye-yok test site, with satellite photographs showing a growing pile of earth or other material outside the tunnel.  If North Korea is following the pattern set after the 2006 and 2009 missile tests it would imply a nuclear test may happen soon.

Two, after the spectacular failure of the Kwangmyŏngsŏng-3 missile on the 13^th and the unprecedented admission of its failure by Kim Jong-un, the new leader must convince the people of North Korea that he is capable of leading the country.  Furthermore, his position in the government is not quite secure analysts’ say, and may use a nuclear test in order to be taken seriously by the military emphasizing his strong leadership while cementing his grip on power.

Three, a test may be a military necessity after the relative failures of the 2006 and 2009 tests.  The 2006 test was estimated to have a yield of roughly a kiloton, indicating that the device may have “fizzled” due to improper design, poor construction, poor quality or contaminated Uranium, or lack of expertise.  The 2009 test, while better in terms of yield, only reached an estimated power of 2.4 kilotons, again indicating an extremely inefficient weapon or a fizzle.  By comparison the world’s first nuclear explosion, the Trinity test in 1945, was 20 kilotons, highlighting the relative weakness of the weapons developed by North Korea so far.  By detonating another weapon, North Korea will be able to alter and improve their design or components, leading to an increase yield.

Whether North Korea tests another nuclear device is impossible to predict, but recent history coupled with the ascension of Kim Jong-un and his need to solidify his power with the failure the Kwangmyŏngsŏng-3 missile point to another test.  Fortunately, with the monitoring stations run by the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization and U.S. National Technical Means, the international community will be able to quickly pinpoint the source and yield of the nuclear explosion.

Share on Facebook

Tweet