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Yet Another Roadblock

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China and U.S. Hit Strident Impasse at Climate Talks – NYTimes.com

China, which last month for the first time publicly announced a target for reducing the rate of growth of its greenhouse gas emissions, is refusing to accept any kind of international monitoring of its emissions levels, according to negotiators and observers here. The United States is insisting that without stringent verification of China’s actions, it cannot support any deal.

This is, of course, a major issue, both substantively and politically.  I do wonder, however, whether it is possible to construct a verification regime that isn’t largely based on self-reporting.  This isn’t an arms control agreement where there are usually a manageable set of controlled activities, nor is this a case where the adversely affected party can be counted on to report violations.  We’re talking here about aggregate CO2 emissions, in a situation where the negative consequences are fundamentally diffuse.  No matter what system is put in place it is going to rely much more heavily on “trust” than “verify.”  That’s just the nature of the beast, I think.